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Surface attached communities of microbes grow in a wide variety of environments. Often, the size of these microbial community is constrained by their physical surroundings. However, little is known about how size constraints of a colony impact the outcome of microbial competitions. Here, we use individual-based models to simulate contact killing between two bacterial strains with different killing rates in a wide range of community sizes. We found that community size has a substantial impact on outcomes; in fact, in some competitions the identity of the most fit strain differs in large and small environments. Specifically, when at a numerical disadvantage, the strain with the slow killing rate is more successful in smaller environments than in large environments. The improved performance in small spaces comes from finite size effects; stochastic fluctuations in the initial relative abundance of each strain in small environments lead to dramatically different outcomes. However, when the slow killing strain has a numerical advantage, it performs better in large spaces than in small spaces, where stochastic fluctuations now aid the fast killing strain in small communities. Finally, we experimentally validate these results by confining contact killing strains ofVibrio choleraein transmission electron microscopy grids. The outcomes of these experiments are consistent with our simulations. When rare, the slow killing strain does better in small environments; when common, the slow killing strain does better in large environments. Together, this work demonstrates that finite size effects can substantially modify antagonistic competitions, suggesting that colony size may, at least in part, subvert the microbial arms race. 

A major strategy to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is the limiting of in-person contacts. However, limiting contacts is impractical or impossible for the many disabled people who do not live in care facilities but still require caregivers to assist them with activities of daily living. We seek to determine which interventions can best prevent infections of disabled people and their caregivers. To accomplish this, we simulate COVID-19 transmission with a compartmental model that includes susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, symptomatically ill, hospitalized, and removed/recovered individuals. The networks on which we simulate disease spread incorporate heterogeneity in the risk levels of different types of interactions, time-dependent lockdown and reopening measures, and interaction distributions for four different groups (caregivers, disabled people, essential workers, and the general population). Of these groups, we find that the probability of becoming infected is largest for caregivers and second largest for disabled people. Consistent with this finding, our analysis of network structure illustrates that caregivers have the largest modal eigenvector centrality of the four groups. We find that two interventions—contact-limiting by all groups and mask-wearing by disabled people and caregivers—most reduce the number of infections in disabled and caregiver populations. We also test which group of people spreads COVID-19 most readily by seeding infections in a subset of each group and comparing the total number of infections as the disease spreads. We find that caregivers are the most potent spreaders of COVID-19, particularly to other caregivers and to disabled people. We test where to use limited infection-blocking vaccine doses most effectively and find that (1) vaccinating caregivers better protects disabled people from infection than vaccinating the general population or essential workers and that (2) vaccinating caregivers protects disabled people from infection about as effectively as vaccinating disabled people themselves. Our results highlight the potential effectiveness of mask-wearing, contact-limiting throughout society, and strategic vaccination for limiting the exposure of disabled people and their caregivers to COVID-19. 

Broad scale remote sensing promises to build forest inventories at unprecedented scales. A crucial step in this process is to associate sensor data into individual crowns. While dozens of crown detection algorithms have been proposed, their performance is typically not compared based on standard data or evaluation metrics. There is a need for a benchmark dataset to minimize differences in reported results as well as support evaluation of algorithms across a broad range of forest types. Combining RGB, LiDAR and hyperspectral sensor data from the USA National Ecological Observatory Network’s Airborne Observation Platform with multiple types of evaluation data, we created a benchmark dataset to assess crown detection and delineation methods for canopy trees covering dominant forest types in the United States. This benchmark dataset includes an R package to standardize evaluation metrics and simplify comparisons between methods. The benchmark dataset contains over 6,000 image-annotated crowns, 400 field-annotated crowns, and 3,000 canopy stem points from a wide range of forest types. In addition, we include over 10,000 training crowns for optional use. We discuss the different evaluation data sources and assess the accuracy of the image-annotated crowns by comparing annotations among multiple annotators as well as overlapping field-annotated crowns. We provide an example submission and score for an open-source algorithm that can serve as a baseline for future methods. 

Collective behavior is an emergent property of numerous complex systems, from financial markets to cancer cells to predator-prey ecological systems. Characterizing modes of collective behavior is often done through human observation, training generative models, or other supervised learning techniques. Each of these cases requires knowledge of and a method for characterizing the macro-state(s) of the system. This presents a challenge for studying novel systems where there may be little prior knowledge. Here, we present a new unsupervised method of detecting emergent behavior in complex systems, and discerning between distinct collective behaviors. We require only metrics, d (1) , d (2) , defined on the set of agents, X , which measure agents’ nearness in variables of interest. We apply the method of diffusion maps to the systems ( X , d ( i ) ) to recover efficient embeddings of their interaction networks. Comparing these geometries, we formulate a measure of similarity between two networks, called the map alignment statistic (MAS). A large MAS is evidence that the two networks are codetermined in some fashion, indicating an emergent relationship between the metrics d (1) and d (2) . Additionally, the form of the macro-scale organization is encoded in the covariances among the two sets of diffusion map components. Using these covariances we discern between different modes of collective behavior in a data-driven, unsupervised manner. This method is demonstrated on a synthetic flocking model as well as empirical fish schooling data. We show that our state classification subdivides the known behaviors of the school in a meaningful manner, leading to a finer description of the system’s behavior.